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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japan's territory as Beijing escalates tensions following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.